Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2025 Nov 10 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).
| Nov 10 | Nov 11 | Nov 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 3.00 | 2.67 | 5.67 (G2) |
| 03-06UT | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.67 (G1) |
| 06-09UT | 1.33 | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| 09-12UT | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| 12-15UT | 2.00 | 4.67 (G1) | 2.67 |
| 15-18UT | 3.00 | 5.00 (G1) | 2.67 |
| 18-21UT | 3.00 | 5.67 (G2) | 1.67 |
| 21-00UT | 4.67 (G1) | 5.67 (G2) | 2.67 |
Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 10 Nov due to possible CME enhancements as the 07 Nov CME passes in close proximity to Earth. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely on 11-12 Nov in response to the anticipated arrival of the 09 Nov asymmetric halo CME.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Nov 10 | Nov 11 | Nov 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 99% | 80% | 35% |
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux to is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) storm levels on 10-11 Nov following the X1.2 flare from Region 4274. There is a chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels on 12 Nov due to the flare potential and location of Region 4274.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 10 2025 0919 UTC.
| Nov 10 | Nov 11 | Nov 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| R3 or greater | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Rationale: R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event on 10-12 Nov.
Real Time Images of the Sun
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SOHO EIT 171 |
SOHO EIT 195 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
SOHO EIT 304 |
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SDO/HMI Continuum |
SDO/HMI Magnetogram |
LASCO C2 |
LASCO C3 |
Solar Wind
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Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
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WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction |
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Solar Cycle
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. The forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Prediction Panel has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.
Auroral Activity Forecast
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Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Radio Communications Impact
D-Region Absorption
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D-Region Absorption Prediction |
VHF and HF Band Conditions
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Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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