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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
From NOAAAtlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Depression Two (AT2/AL022026)
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 the center of Two was located near 28.5, -85.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026000 WTNT32 KNHC 201448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 85.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coasts of Mississippi and Louisiana from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.6 West. The depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that the depression is getting better organized, and it is expected to become a tropical storm later today. After that, additional gradual strengthening is expected through Tuesday. The minimum central pressure estimated from a combination of Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida Big Bend region today. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026000 WTNT22 KNHC 201447 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026000 WTNT42 KNHC 201448 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is 310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in the depression turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track based partly on the current position and the possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the center a little more southward. The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to 48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h, especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more land interaction. It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the center. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning late tonight into Tuesday. 2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area later today or Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 201448
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
APALACHICOLA 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFAM 290N 850W 34 10 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFAM 290N 870W 34 11 34(45) 18(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23)
GFAM 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jul 2026 15:22:21 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 20 Jul 2026 14:51:19 GMT
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 1101 AM EDT
Local Statement for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 1022 AM CDT
Local Statement for Mobile, AL/Pensacola, FL
Issued at 1020 AM CDT
