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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks

From NOAA

RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean a little less than one thousand miles
east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24
 the center of Lee was located near 31.3, -49.7
 with movement SE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 27

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 49.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.7 West.  Lee is moving toward
the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue during the next 24 hours.  A turn toward the southwest or
west is expected by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
(55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 242031
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  49.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N  49.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 242031
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
overcast.  SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
remains 80 kt.

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
vertical shear and warm waters.  However, the HWRF and COAMPS
dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
own cold wake in a couple of days.  By day 4 or 5, the environment
should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
Hurricane Maria.  The official intensity forecast is in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt.  The
hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
re-established north of Lee.  By day 4 the system should recurve
and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track model
consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5.  The official track
forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
center.  The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
multi-model scheme.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 31.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 242031
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA                                                  

Hurricane Lee Graphics


Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 20:37:49 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 20:37:49 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24
 the center of Maria was located near 29.4, -73.0
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 941 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 35

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242054
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 73.0W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On
the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of
the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday night
or Tuesday.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft data is 941 mb  (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 35

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 242053
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  73.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  73.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.3N  73.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N  73.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.6N  73.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.0N  73.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.8N  71.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 35

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 242057
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria's pressure has fallen a few millibars
since this morning, but there has been little overall change in
intensity.  A blend of the flight-level and Stepped Frequency
Radiometer Microwave Radiometer data yields an initial wind
speed of around 90 kt.  Maria will be traversing warm water and
remain in a low shear environment during the next day or so, and
some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Monday.
After that time, Maria is forecast to move over cooler waters left
over from Hurricane Jose.  This is likely to result in gradual
weakening, however Maria is forecast to maintain hurricane status
through the entire forecast period.

Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is
currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a
cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over
the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane
should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to
the north of the system over the northeastern United States.  After
72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as
the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude
trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the
end of the week.  The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly
similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side
of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge.  The NHC track
is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus
aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean.

Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm-
force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina in about 48
hours.  As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a
portion of the coast of North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 29.4N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 30.3N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 31.4N  73.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 33.6N  73.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 35.0N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 35.8N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 242054
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   1(16)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   6(22)   X(22)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   6(28)   1(29)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)   X(20)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)   6(32)   X(32)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   3(19)   X(19)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)  20(32)   6(38)   X(38)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)  21(35)   6(41)   X(41)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)  23(39)   7(46)   X(46)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)  23(44)   7(51)   X(51)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)  13(24)   4(28)   X(28)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   7( 7)  15(22)  25(47)  20(67)   5(72)   X(72)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   5(27)   X(27)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   5( 5)   8(13)  16(29)  17(46)   5(51)   X(51)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  1   6( 7)  11(18)  20(38)  18(56)   5(61)   X(61)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   6( 6)  10(16)  17(33)  17(50)   5(55)   X(55)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   5( 5)   7(12)  10(22)  13(35)   4(39)   X(39)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   7(18)  12(30)   3(33)   X(33)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   5( 5)   6(11)   7(18)  11(29)   3(32)   X(32)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   9(21)   2(23)   X(23)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   7(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 21:03:32 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 21:03:32 GMT

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 21:11:22 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  515 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017